In the long-term, it’s unclear precisely what President Karzai’s termination of talks with the Taliban means for the ISAF effort in Afghanistan. But with Karzai’s decision coming on the heels of Admiral Mullen’s criticism of the Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence for its role in facilitating the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan, it seems likely that this could be a decisive moment in the Afghan War, one where America can recommit itself to the government in Kabul, to defeating the Taliban insurgency and to— in Bismarckian fashion—applying pressure on Pakistan to reach some more lasting, and candid, agreement.
Exploiting this opening—and ensuring the security conditions for political development– will be crucial to securing the vast U.S. interests at stake in Afghanistan. And while most arguments regarding the American commitment in Afghanistan focus for good reason on the Taliban’s harboring of Al Qaeda, American leaders would do well to emphasize the larger strategic value of having a strong partner in Kabul.
Ensuring that the government in Kabul, in the words of General Petraeus, “develop(s) sufficient capabilities to secure and govern itself” is important not only for preventing the return of Al Qaeda, but also for injecting stability into a region that is likely to remain problematic for the foreseeable future. A strong, pro-American government in Afghanistan hedges against Iran—encircling Tehran with pro-western regimes– and provides assurances for a fragile Pakistani state next door. While American intervention in Afghanistan was never intended as a part of a grand, “great game” strategy, the devolving situation in Pakistan, in particular, has added importance to the ISAF mission.
A viable Afghan state, it should be said, turns for now on one man: Hamid Karzai. While Karzai might not be the ideal partner, he is more reliable—and more predictable—than often depicted. Karzai is guided above all by a sense of self-interest, a self-interest which largely intersects with American interests in the region. He seeks an independent Afghanistan and understands acutely the formula for achieving it: cobbling together an ethnic coalition of Tajiks, Hazari and Uzbek and a critical mass of Pashto. It is also true that, however much we may wish it were not so, any other Afghan political leader would be subject to political pressures similar to those that Karzai feels today, and likely act in similar ways.
As the political arena expands to include the views of Republican presidential candidates, Afghanistan has returned to a prominent role in the public debate. This is a prime opportunity for those who see vital American interests at stake in the Afghan War to speak up.
