Iran Still Seeking to Acquire Advanced Air Defense System
Tehran recently filed suit against Moscow in the International Court of Arbitration for its decision to cancel sale of Russia’s S-300 surface-to-air missile system. Iran and Russia signed an $800 million contract in 2007 to supply Tehran with five battalions of the anti-aircraft system, which would substantially boost Iran’s capacity to defend its nuclear installations. But last September President Dmitry Medvedev banned transfer of the S-300 to Tehran. He argued that the most recent round of Security Council sanctions against Iran—adopted in June 2010—prohibited their delivery.
Tehran disagrees. In an interview on Wednesday, Iran’s ambassador to Russia reiterated his government’s view that the S-300 is a defensive weapons system that falls outside the confines of the sanctions regime. It’s a position that the Iranians have maintained since Medvedev issued his decree last fall. Russia, however, was apparently shocked by Iran’s lawsuit. “We recognize the statement by Iranian officials about the intention to dispute Russia’s actions in an arbitrational procedure,” a spokesman for the Russian Foreign Ministry said on Thursday. “At the same time, taking into account the traditionally friendly character of bilateral relations, it arouses surprise that our Iranian partners chose such a course.”
But a potential slip by the Iranian ambassador during his interview brings into question Russia’s purported surprise. “We filed suit so that the decision of the court would help Russia to realize these deliveries [of the S-300], so that Russia would have a legal trump,” the ambassador said. In other words, an evaluation by the court that existing UN sanctions don’t legally forbid sale of the S-300 to Iran—or an ambiguous verdict that fails to explicitly state that they do—would give Moscow a pretext to move forward with the transfer. And Russia has real interests in selling the S-300 to Iran. The system’s producer announced earlier this month that absent new costumers production of the S-300 will be halted by the end of the year. From Moscow’s perspective, the Iranian arms market looks increasingly attractive as two of its largest weapons buyers—Syria and Venezuela—face uncertainty at home.
The recent Russian-Iranian rapprochement makes Moscow’s supposed bewilderment at Tehran’s lawsuit even less credulous. This might be a coordinated effort. Don’t be surprised if Iran ultimately acquires the S-300. And if it does, expect Tehran to be even more bold in its pursuit of nuclear weapons.
